Iraq solution lies with Iran, published in the National Post 23 November 2006.

The assertion in today's editorial, that "one thing must be avoided at all costs -- giving Iran a say in the governance of Iraq", very much points to the real reasons for US involvement in Iraq (containing Iran), as well as why Iraq cannot be stabilized by going big or going long.

First, the idea that Iran could or should be kept from influencing Iraq is facile, at best. Countries often stabilize and destabilize one another's respective political situations on a regular basis, sometimes intentionally, sometimes not, and often simultaneously.

For example, the softwood lumber situation between the United States and Canada inflames relations and causes turmoil on both sides of the border, but its resolution underscores the connectedness of both countries. There's also no 'good and evil' here: just competing interests. It's not a crisis -- it's the basis for the way modern nations interact.

What's important is that Iran and Syria are not puppeteers making the insurgency happen -- both have very large constituencies in Iraq that look to them bring about their respective political interests. Sure, Syria wants a more Sunni-dominated Iraq and Iran wants a more Shiite-dominated Iraq. What the United States really wants is neither, but, for the foreseeable future, this is patently impossible.

But everyone in the region wants a stable Iraq, not a failed state, and that includes Iran and Syria. The on-going American presence is what makes failed statehood a very strong possibility in Iraq, since it escalates tensions all around. As the two parties considerably nurturing the problem, Iraq and Syria are the two parties most likely to nurture the solution, not the United States, in partnership with the Iraqi government.

Regardless of whether anyone likes it or not, given Iraqi demographics, Iran will almost certainly come to dominate the new Iraq. Syria can only have a modest amount influence and the United States can't stay in Iraq forever. It's time the US started a constructive dialog with Iran before we all end up in a new Cold War.